Proportianal Representation and the BNP
I don’t know where I stand on PR. It sounds good but then you ask what the effect would be on parties like the the BNP. I did some fag packet accounting and based upon the BNP’s shocking 1.9% of the vote I figured that they would have perhaps 12 MPs under a PR system. I decided to go check this out and found the following recent blog post
http://www.vote-no-to-bnp.org.uk/2010/05/proportional-representation-pr-and-the-bnp.html
They’ve done their homework and discovered what actually happens in those countries that have already adopted a PR system.
In reality this really isn’t the case, most countries that operate a PR System of voting have a percentage cut off, this cut off is typically 5 or 10%, meaning a prospective MP would first have to achieve either 5 or 10% of the popular vote in order to progress through the PR system of selection.
In the case of the BNP they would based on the 2010 General Election results only have 3 candidates that could have progressed through the PR selection process if we applied the 10% cap (which seems from my research to be the most popular), so at best the BNP would have 1 and at an outside the BNP would have 2 MPs.
So the BNP wouldn’t get their share of the pie. Great! Good riddance. But if you’re argument is that PR is representative then you have to ask yourself if you’re just fixing the rules to suit your own situation. Where does this leave parties like the Greens?
What the 10 or 5% system seems to propose is a system in which every party is equal but some parties are more equal than others. The result is messy ethical knot spaghetti. Isn’t it simpler to recognise that the democratic process has some serious failings whichever way you cut it? My concern would be that PR would create an environment where centre-left liberals would flourish for the simple reason that the majority of the UK is economically illiterate and historically ignorant. Do I want a system that ignores the wishes of the ignorant? You bet ya! and so do you.
So what’s the answer? I don’t know. Transferable Vote?
Democracy is a reasonable way to throw out a complete bastard and pretty useless for everything else. The democratic process seems like the tyranny of a numerical majority to me. Another option would be competing governments and Scottish independence would be a good start towards that.
I suppose my ideal would be a strong constitution where democracy was reduced to a simple administrative task of selecting guardians.
The problem with democracy is it relies so heavily on public opinion; so far worse than the rent-seeking described by Olson and others, is that it rewards those adept at manipulating public opinion.
@sconzey
I didn’t know much about Mancur Olson until your comment inspired me to find out more about him. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mancur_Olson
I might have a look at the “Rise and Fall of Nations” when I’ve got through “Change We Can Believe In”. I’m sure that will confuse Amazon. I’m on a mission to seek out books and information that doesn’t re-enforce my prejudices. “The Audacity of Hope” is next on the list.
That’s given me an idea for my next blog post. I’ve got the title already… “Confusing Amazon by swimming with sharks”.
I agree with pretty much everything you’ve said about PR and minor parties, and have been having this same conversation with some ardent supporters of PR over the last few days.
STV will presumably remove or massively reduce tactical voting, but I don’t think it will necessarily aid proportionality. My prediction is that in practice the Lib Dems would get more seats, but smaller parties still won’t be able to muster enough support to get any seats at all (except for where there are regional issues, as now), even if they have a decent percentage of the total vote.
Something else I’ve had thrown at me is that 64% of the population disagree with the Conservatives, and that this is unfair. I suppose that percentage is in principle far reduced now that we have a coalition, but I still don’t buy the argument.
Even though 64% of people didn’t vote Tory, I think they will be far more sympathetic to many of their policies and decisions than they would to the policies of e.g. the BNP. PR is still a crude way to measure public opinion, as usually people see things in shades of grey, and not just one party or another exclusively. Maybe instead of rating candidates in order, we need to give a percentage of their policies we support….
What it boils down to is that I’m not going to be happy with any voting format whilst there’s no limit on government power. However, I live in the UK and it doesn’t look like I have any choice so given the options I’d prefer to go for the system that’s least likely to keep returning the centre-left. At the moment that’s “First Past The Post”.
STF with Swiss style cantons would be my preference in the long term but that doesn’t look like it will happen any time soon.